Economic Cycles – Coming of Age

Warning Signs That a Bubble Is About to Burst
You don’t need a Nobel to see the similarities between 1999 and 2019
By Scott Galloway

In 1999, I and a gaggle of other San Francisco internet founders and CEOs went to an airfield, where we browsed private jets. It made sense that, at 34, I should have a one-bedroom apartment to transport me across the surface of the atmosphere at mach .8, because I was a fucking genius who could afford, on paper, to spend the equivalent of a thousand years of my mother’s salary on a Gulfstream.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, defines a financial crisis as “something that happens every five to seven years.” It’s been 11 since the last recession. As you get old enough to observe cycles as actual cycles, you begin to recognize that the economic time you’re in is a point on a curved line, and, sooner than you think, the direction of the line will change. Better or worse.
An asset bubble is a wave of optimism that lifts prices beyond levels warranted by fundamentals, ending in a crash. In 1999, I promised myself that I’d be smarter next time. “Next time” meaning on the cusp of a pop or recession.
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